Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The average figure of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new official statistics. However, security analysts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to indicate better national stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This information was provided by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is very significant,” the President said, adding that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than the US. However, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased collaboration between various departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, security researchers warned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for estimating the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it could hide days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.