A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
