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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. However no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.